According to a recent U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics revision to the preliminary benchmark announcement, the labor market is unlikely to be as strong as initially forecasted. The total unemployment for the last annual period until March 2024 was 0.5% less than estimated—a reduction of 818,000 jobs. The construction industry, in particular, was down 0.6%, or 45,000 jobs from the previous estimation.
Every year, the Current Unemployment Statistics (CES) estimates are compared to the total employment counts for March, providing early insight into the year’s employment data. The CES data from the last period shows an increase in total jobs, with about 8.2 million added to the construction space. However, this revision statement shows the projected growth was overstated, similar to the housing sector, and has been revised down by 45,000 jobs.
This is the largest overestimation since 2010, including the three straight years of downward revisions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Some sectors saw an upward trend in employment revisions, including private education and health services, warehousing and transportation, and utilities. Industry counts come from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records, which are mandatory for nearly all employers to file.
The final revision for the employment estimate will be updated at the end of the next period, in March 2025.
